The deficit stood over Rs 8 trillion in the first seven months of the current financial year. Non-tax revenues, comprising transfers from the RBI and dividends of the public sector units, shored up the Centre's revenues.
'Pump prices of petrol and diesel have reached historical highs. An unwinding of taxes on petroleum products by both the Centre and the states could ease the cost-push pressures,' the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has said.
The demand environment is expected to improve over the next three quarters, aided by a recovery in demand from the construction sector, following release of payments to contractors after elections.
Investment growth moderated slightly in the economy during the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year (2023-24, or FY24), notwithstanding the front-loading of capital expenditure (capex) by the Centre. This was also the case despite a pick-up in demand during the period after two dismal consecutive quarters. Although growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), representing investment, fell to a five-quarter low of 7.96 per cent, the comparison with the first two quarters of the previous year is a bit askew due to the low year-on-year (Y-o-Y) base of those periods.
Private sector banks reported a robust profile with healthy growth in net interest income (NII), credit offtake and reduction in provision burden for the fourth quarter ended March 2023 (Q4 of FY23). However, as a pack, their net profit declined by 9.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) at Rs 25,317 crore in Q4. This is because Axis Bank posted losses due to its one-time hefty charge for the acquisition of Citibank India's consumer business.
This payment of Rs 962 crore is inclusive of the Rs 500 crore DHFL received from exiting its entire stake in subsidiary firm Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd.
After the RBI surprised the Centre with a record Rs 99,122 crore in surplus transfer for FY21, analysts said this will help the government tide over the revenue losses from lockdowns and extend more support to the pandemic hit industries and to the poor people. In fiscal 2020, the RBI had paid only Rs 57,128 crore in dividend to the government and the finance minister had budgeted only Rs 45,000 crore from the central bank. The higher payout followed the Bimal Jalan panel report that had set a new economic framework capital buffer for the central bank along with the contingency risk buffer at 5.5 per cent.
Nirma has roped in BCG and KPMG to advise it on the fundraising options for the acquisition. The company had earlier informed banks that it would raise Rs 5,000 crore to Rs 7,000 crore in the current financial year for the acquisition. Bankers said the company will rely on its funds and future GLS dividend to repay its debt for acquisition.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
Corporate India's credit quality showed a sharp improvement in the second half of FY22, but high input prices and withdrawal of pandemic-related relief measures can pose pressures in the new year, rating agencies said on Friday. Crisil Ratings, which rates a large number of financial sector entities, reported an improvement in the credit ratio -- the number of upgrades to downgrade -- to 5.04 times in the second half of this financial year, from the 2.96 per cent in the first half of the fiscal. It attributed the improvement to a sustained rebound in demand, which lifted revenues of most sectors to pre-pandemic levels and proactive relief measures by the government that cushioned the pandemic blow.
An expected withdrawal of FIIs from the market likely to weaken the rupee against the dollar.
Retail inflation declined to 6.83 per cent in August after touching a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July, mainly due to softening prices of vegetables, but still remains above the Reserve Bank's comfort zone. The overall inflation in the food basket stood at 9.94 per cent in August as against 11.51 per cent in July, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 7 per cent in August 2022.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, mainly on account of a slight easing in prices of food and fuel items though it remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the second month in a row. As per the government data released on Monday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was at 6.52 per cent in January and 6.07 per cent in February 2022. The retail inflation rate for the food basket worked out to be 5.95 per cent in February, marginally lower than 6 per cent in January.
While the tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.88 per cent has been assumed for FY21, the same as last year, when it touched a decadal low, for FY22 a ratio of 10.7 per cent has been assumed, an average of the last five years.
The GST revenues for August 2023 have shown a growth of 11 per cent year on year due to increased compliance and less evasion, Revenue secretary Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday. The collection from Goods and Services Tax (GST) was Rs 1,43,612 crore in August 2022. "Roughly numbers are in the range of 11 per cent year on year growth as in earlier months," Malhotra told reporters.
Retail inflation jumped to a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July as prices of vegetables and other food items spiked, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was at 4.87 in June and 6.71 per cent in July 2022. Previously, high inflation was recorded at 7.79 per cent in April 2022.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
Reflecting subdued global economic growth, India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 33.3 per cent sequentially to $1.21 billion in August, compared to over $1.82 billion in July.
The states that witnessed high CPI-based inflation rates were Lakshadweep, Tripura, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Manipur and Mizoram.
Billionaire Gautam Adani's group is planning to build 10 GW of integrated solar manufacturing capacity by 2027, as it looks to capture energy transition business, sources close to the company said. Adani Group currently has a solar manufacturing capacity of 4 GW. Adani Solar has a confirmed order book of over 3,000 MW in exports that are to be serviced over the next 15 months, they said, adding Adani, recently, raised $394 million for solar manufacturing from Barclays PLC and Deutsche Banks AG through a trade finance facility.
But the government will present a second tranche of Supplementary Demands for Grants during the Budget session of Parliament in February, when it can seek additional spending.
With pricing power of producers unlikely to strengthen and commodities ex-crude oil likely to remain sluggish in the immediate term, the core-WPI inflation may remain sub-zero in the rest of this calendar year.
Perhaps the way forward could be the introduction of uniform rating standards - on the lines of accounting standards for the accounting profession - with a separate regulating authority for enforcing those standards, says Sudipto Dey.
Domestic air passenger traffic jumped 57 per cent to around 49 lakh in July, reflecting a significant sequential as well as year-on-year growth amid a decline in coronavirus infections, according to a report. Recording continued recovery, traffic rose 56-57 per cent to 48-49 lakh in July compared to June this year when it was about 31.1 lakh. As against June 2020, the growth is 132 per cent, rating agency Icra said in the report on Thursday.
RBI has, since January, cut its policy rate four times.
The Union government's finances witnessed significant improvement in August after a stressful first four months of the current fiscal year. India's gross tax revenue, comprising both direct and indirect taxes, for the first five months of 2023-24 surged 16.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 11.8 trillion. During the April-July period, gross tax revenue increased by a mere 2.8 per cent compared to the Budget Estimate of 12.1 per cent growth for FY24.
The economic growth is likely to moderate to 6.1 per cent, slowest in over seven quarters, from 6.6 per cent last year same period.
The broad contours of their assignment are expected to be making independent assessment of recovery prospects, and estimating haircuts for restructuring cases.
India's gross tax revenue, comprising both direct and indirect taxes between April and July, reported a growth rate of merely 2.8 per cent to Rs 8.9 trillion compared to the same period a year ago, as shown by government data on Thursday. This growth was dampened by direct tax figures, offsetting the healthy growth in goods and services tax collections and Customs duties. While net tax revenue contracted by 12.6 per cent to Rs 5.8 trillion up to July, accounting for 25 per cent of the Rs 23.3 trillion full-year target, this could be attributed to the increased tax devolution to states during the period.
The domestic passenger traffic in July 2021 was 51 lakh, ICRA said in a release. Domestic passenger traffic on a year-on-year basis, however, spiked around 131 per cent over August 2020 traffic of 28.3 lakh, it said. The ratings agency said despite the continued recovery in the previous month, there is continued stress on demand, driven largely by the second wave of the pandemic, limiting travel to only necessary travel.
The wait for India to become a $5-trillion economic powerhouse by 2024-25 (FY25) is going to take longer than what the finance ministry had originally intended, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The vision will instead be achieved in 2028-29 (FY29), reveals the IMF data, illustrating a four-year delay. Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran had in February said India would become a $5-trillion economy by 2025-26 or the following year, on the back of 8-9 per cent sustained growth rate in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, the IMF data conveys that the economy will be $4.92 trillion in FY28, clearly alluding to the fact that the target will be realised in FY29.
Leading economists have pencilled in a high 13-15.7 per cent uptick in the economy in the first quarter of 2022-23 with an upward bias. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, on Tuesday said he expects the GDP to clip past 15.7 per cent in the first quarter with more chances of the final numbers printing in higher, while Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the rating agency Icra, said the economy will grow much lower at 13 per cent in the June quarter. The national statistical office will announce the first quarter GDP numbers later next week.
The second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is likely to delay recovery in air passenger traffic with an 80-85 per cent growth year-on-year this fiscal against the earlier estimate of 130-135 per cent, ratings agency ICRA said on Monday. The domestic passenger traffic, which witnessed a steady ramp-up after resumption of airport operations since May 25 last year and reached 64 per cent of the previous year levels in February, has again suffered a setback, the ratings agency said in a report. The spike in coronavirus infections towards March-end and April has resulted in several state governments implementing fresh restrictions, resulting in a marginal 0.7 per cent de-growth sequentially in traffic in March.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors increased by 5.4 per cent in November against a 3.2 per cent growth in the same month last year on a better show by coal, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity segments, according to the official data released on Friday. Crude oil, natural gas and refinery products, however, recorded negative growth in November this year. The production growth of eight key sectors slowed down to 0.9 per cent in October.
On June 30, mining and metals giant Vedanta, announced that it had decided to initiate a strategic review of its steel and steel-making raw material businesses. The review would begin immediately and evaluate a broad range of options, including but not limited to a potential strategic sale of some or all of the steel businesses, the company said in its stock exchange filing. The signs have been there - approaches had been made to steel players over the past year. Last December, Anil Agarwal, chairman Vedanta group, told Business Standard that the steel plant capacity was about 3 million tonnes (mt).
Gold jewellery demand in India is likely to decline in the second and third quarters of this fiscal due to hike in import duty, high volatility in prices and inflationary pressure, according to a report. While demand is likely to contract by 8 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of FY23, the decline is expected to be higher at 15 per cent in the third quarter due to the exceptionally high base in the same period of FY22, Icra said in a report. According to the report, the exceptional third quarter performance in FY22 was due to the post-Covid reopening of the economy and the substantially high demand in the wedding and festive seasons.
Loans, cash credits, and overdrafts at the end of December 22, 2017, stood at Rs 81,287.32 billion, against Rs 73,340 billion in the year-ago period.
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