The demand environment is expected to improve over the next three quarters, aided by a recovery in demand from the construction sector, following release of payments to contractors after elections.
Corporate India is starting to step up its capital expenditure plans amid government incentives and signs of rising demand, company executives and analysts have indicated. This coincides with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently citing a double-digit growth in private capital expenditure. Healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, along with increasing capacity utilisation and improving business sentiment, are contributing to a favourable environment for sustained growth in private sector investments, the RBI said in its policy last week.
'Pump prices of petrol and diesel have reached historical highs. An unwinding of taxes on petroleum products by both the Centre and the states could ease the cost-push pressures,' the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has said.
This payment of Rs 962 crore is inclusive of the Rs 500 crore DHFL received from exiting its entire stake in subsidiary firm Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd.
The government has brought back the windfall profit tax on domestically produced crude oil after international prices firmed up while the levy on export of diesel has been cut to nil, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is now Rs 6,400 per tonne with effect from Wednesday, the order dated April 18 said. At the last revision on April 4, windfall tax on domestically produced crude oil was cut to nil as international oil prices dipped below $75 per barrel.
The government's regional connectivity scheme UDAN has witnessed a slow progress of implementation, as not even 50 per cent of the route have been operationalised and the second wave of the pandemic, which started from mid of March 2021, may impact it further going forward, according to a report. Rating agency ICRA in its report on Tuesday said that there is likely to be a further delay of two years in achieving the target of operationalising as many as 100 unserved and underserved airports and starting at least 1,000 RCS routes by 2024. Aimed at enhancing regional connectivity through fiscal support and infrastructure development, the maiden flight under the Ude Desh Ka Aam Nagrik (UDAN) scheme was flagged off by Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Shimla for Delhi on April 27, 2017.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
An expected withdrawal of FIIs from the market likely to weaken the rupee against the dollar.
After the RBI surprised the Centre with a record Rs 99,122 crore in surplus transfer for FY21, analysts said this will help the government tide over the revenue losses from lockdowns and extend more support to the pandemic hit industries and to the poor people. In fiscal 2020, the RBI had paid only Rs 57,128 crore in dividend to the government and the finance minister had budgeted only Rs 45,000 crore from the central bank. The higher payout followed the Bimal Jalan panel report that had set a new economic framework capital buffer for the central bank along with the contingency risk buffer at 5.5 per cent.
The Interim Budget for 2024-25 (FY25) to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume 10-10.5 per cent nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth against 8.9 per cent estimated for FY24 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). "We were waiting for the First Advance Estimates GDP numbers for FY24. "We will finalise the nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 Interim Budget in a couple of days.
Benefiting from higher credit off-take and loan repricing, listed commercial banks are expected to post 43.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in their net profit in the quarter ended June 30 (Q1FY24), analysts have said. Controlled credit costs due to a healthy asset quality profile and a steady treasury book will also support a strong bottom line for the lenders in the first quarter. However, net profit may shrink sequentially, according to analysts' estimates for 13 banks sourced from Bloomberg data.
While the tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.88 per cent has been assumed for FY21, the same as last year, when it touched a decadal low, for FY22 a ratio of 10.7 per cent has been assumed, an average of the last five years.
Retail inflation rose to three-month high of 4.81 per cent in June, mainly on account of hardening prices of food, according to the government data. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.31 per per (revised upward from 4.25 per cent) in May and 7 per cent in June 2022. The inflation, however, remains within the RBI's comfort level of below 6 per cent.
Trouble started brewing after Cognizant announced that Ravi Kumar, former Infosys president, would take over as the Nasdaq-listed company's CEO.
A strong appetite for gold on Friday's Dhanteras is expected this year due to auspicious reasons and geopolitical concerns, continuing the 2022 trend driven by pent-up COVID demand. Compared to last year's Dhanteras, gold prices have jumped 22 per cent and silver prices by 21 per cent, respectively. "Gold and silver are good for portfolio diversification, especially in times of geopolitical turbulence.
The states that witnessed high CPI-based inflation rates were Lakshadweep, Tripura, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Manipur and Mizoram.
Corporate India's credit quality showed a sharp improvement in the second half of FY22, but high input prices and withdrawal of pandemic-related relief measures can pose pressures in the new year, rating agencies said on Friday. Crisil Ratings, which rates a large number of financial sector entities, reported an improvement in the credit ratio -- the number of upgrades to downgrade -- to 5.04 times in the second half of this financial year, from the 2.96 per cent in the first half of the fiscal. It attributed the improvement to a sustained rebound in demand, which lifted revenues of most sectors to pre-pandemic levels and proactive relief measures by the government that cushioned the pandemic blow.
Snapping its declining trend, retail inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.55 per cent in November on firming food prices, including vegetables and cereals, though it remains within the RBI's comfort zone of less than 6 per cent. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 4.87 per cent in October and 5.88 per cent in November 2022, the government data released on Tuesday showed. The previous high was 6.83 per cent in August and inflation had been on a decline since then.
Worried by a spike in Chinese imports, the Indian Steel Association (ISA) plans to take up the matter with the government and seek measures to fix "trade distortions". Alok Sahay, secretary general of the group that represents the country's steel producers, said systemic changes were needed. "In order to take any trade measure, it takes a minimum of 15 months' time, due to prevalence of lesser duty rule in India, making India an easy target. "We are going to write to the government on this," he said.
RBI has, since January, cut its policy rate four times.
"We will raise Rs 300 crore via bonds of two-, three- and five-year tenures. This will be our maiden bond issuance and is part of our effort to widen funding sources," says Vimal Bhandari, executive vice-chairman and chief executive officer (CEO), Arka Fincap. The firm, a subsidiary of Kirloskar Oil, is only five years old and small (assets of around Rs 5,000 crore with an "AA" rating), but the response to this float will be closely watched: It would be the first by a non-banking finance company (NBFC) after Mint Road upped the risk weights on bank exposures to them by 25 percentage points. The move by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has caught NBFCs off guard even though the issue had been flagged by Governor Shaktikanta Das with their corner-room occupants (and that of banks) in July and August 2023 - on consumer credit and the dependency on bank borrowings.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
With pricing power of producers unlikely to strengthen and commodities ex-crude oil likely to remain sluggish in the immediate term, the core-WPI inflation may remain sub-zero in the rest of this calendar year.
Private sector banks reported a robust profile with healthy growth in net interest income (NII), credit offtake and reduction in provision burden for the fourth quarter ended March 2023 (Q4 of FY23). However, as a pack, their net profit declined by 9.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) at Rs 25,317 crore in Q4. This is because Axis Bank posted losses due to its one-time hefty charge for the acquisition of Citibank India's consumer business.
Perhaps the way forward could be the introduction of uniform rating standards - on the lines of accounting standards for the accounting profession - with a separate regulating authority for enforcing those standards, says Sudipto Dey.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
Investment growth moderated slightly in the economy during the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year (2023-24, or FY24), notwithstanding the front-loading of capital expenditure (capex) by the Centre. This was also the case despite a pick-up in demand during the period after two dismal consecutive quarters. Although growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), representing investment, fell to a five-quarter low of 7.96 per cent, the comparison with the first two quarters of the previous year is a bit askew due to the low year-on-year (Y-o-Y) base of those periods.
The economic growth is likely to moderate to 6.1 per cent, slowest in over seven quarters, from 6.6 per cent last year same period.
The deficit stood over Rs 8 trillion in the first seven months of the current financial year. Non-tax revenues, comprising transfers from the RBI and dividends of the public sector units, shored up the Centre's revenues.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, mainly on account of a slight easing in prices of food and fuel items though it remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the second month in a row. As per the government data released on Monday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was at 6.52 per cent in January and 6.07 per cent in February 2022. The retail inflation rate for the food basket worked out to be 5.95 per cent in February, marginally lower than 6 per cent in January.
The broad contours of their assignment are expected to be making independent assessment of recovery prospects, and estimating haircuts for restructuring cases.
Nirma has roped in BCG and KPMG to advise it on the fundraising options for the acquisition. The company had earlier informed banks that it would raise Rs 5,000 crore to Rs 7,000 crore in the current financial year for the acquisition. Bankers said the company will rely on its funds and future GLS dividend to repay its debt for acquisition.
Domestic air passenger traffic jumped 57 per cent to around 49 lakh in July, reflecting a significant sequential as well as year-on-year growth amid a decline in coronavirus infections, according to a report. Recording continued recovery, traffic rose 56-57 per cent to 48-49 lakh in July compared to June this year when it was about 31.1 lakh. As against June 2020, the growth is 132 per cent, rating agency Icra said in the report on Thursday.
Loans, cash credits, and overdrafts at the end of December 22, 2017, stood at Rs 81,287.32 billion, against Rs 73,340 billion in the year-ago period.
Retail inflation declined to 6.83 per cent in August after touching a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July, mainly due to softening prices of vegetables, but still remains above the Reserve Bank's comfort zone. The overall inflation in the food basket stood at 9.94 per cent in August as against 11.51 per cent in July, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 7 per cent in August 2022.
Retail inflation jumped to a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July as prices of vegetables and other food items spiked, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was at 4.87 in June and 6.71 per cent in July 2022. Previously, high inflation was recorded at 7.79 per cent in April 2022.
The GST revenues for August 2023 have shown a growth of 11 per cent year on year due to increased compliance and less evasion, Revenue secretary Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday. The collection from Goods and Services Tax (GST) was Rs 1,43,612 crore in August 2022. "Roughly numbers are in the range of 11 per cent year on year growth as in earlier months," Malhotra told reporters.
